BirdAnalyst
Guild

Forest Birds

205 species tracked. As a group, forest birds are -37%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds as a group is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.2 (95% range 0.76–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.76–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds as a group is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.2 (95% range 0.76–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.781.7
20271.20.771.7
20281.20.771.7
20291.20.771.7
20301.20.761.7

Forest Birds By State

Forest birds group trend by state.
Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology →
Alaska-44%51
Nevada-24%52
Oregon-22%81
Idaho-22%75
West Virginia-22%77
South Carolina-19%55
Washington-19%79
Kentucky-17%59
Utah-15%72
Connecticut-14%65
Georgia-12%60
North Carolina-12%73
Maine-9%77
Wyoming-7%73
Texas-6%83
Virginia-6%71
New Mexico-5%78
Montana-3%80
Vermont-3%70
Arizona-2%84
New Hampshire-2%80
Alabama+4%59
Indiana+5%61
Tennessee+5%71
California+5%94
New Jersey+6%66
Michigan+11%87
Oklahoma+14%60
Arkansas+15%60
Massachusetts+15%68
Missouri+15%59
Iowa+16%44
Florida+16%49
Colorado+20%79
Pennsylvania+29%78
Illinois+32%58
Minnesota+32%82
New York+33%86
Wisconsin+34%80
Nebraska+36%50
Ohio+42%64
Maryland+49%72
Mississippi+50%53
Kansas+53%52
South Dakota+57%60
Rhode Island+76%50
Louisiana+81%50
Delaware+91%53
North Dakota+93%43

Member Species

Species in the Forest birds guild.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →
White-crowned PigeonColumbidae-97%1968
Smooth-billed AniCuculidae-94%1969
Bay-breasted WarblerParulidae-90%1968
Black-whiskered VireoVireonidae-88%1968
Spot-breasted OrioleIcteridae-83%1969
Florida Scrub-JayCorvidae-82%1968
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-78%1968
Field SparrowPasserellidae-77%1968
Gray-crowned Rosy-FinchFringillidae-68%1984
White-throated SparrowPasserellidae-68%1968
Bicknell's ThrushTurdidae-68%1968
Prairie WarblerParulidae-64%1968
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-63%1968
PyrrhuloxiaCardinalidae-63%1969
Rivoli's HummingbirdTrochilidae-62%1983
Wood ThrushTurdidae-62%1968
Brown ThrasherMimidae-60%1968
Canada WarblerParulidae-59%1968
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-59%1968
Cerulean WarblerParulidae-59%1968
Orchard OrioleIcteridae-55%1968
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae-54%1968
Bachman's SparrowPasserellidae-54%1968
Philadelphia VireoVireonidae-51%1969
Purple FinchFringillidae-51%1968
Blue JayCorvidae-49%1968
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae-48%1968
VeeryTurdidae-43%1968
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-42%1968
Kentucky WarblerParulidae-40%1968
Connecticut WarblerParulidae-40%1969
Pinyon JayCorvidae-40%1970
Elegant TrogonTrogonidae-39%1980
Golden-winged WarblerParulidae-38%1968
American GoldfinchFringillidae-38%1968
Song SparrowPasserellidae-37%1968
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-36%1968
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae-34%1968
Allen's HummingbirdTrochilidae-32%1970
Common YellowthroatParulidae-30%1968
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae-25%1968
Rufous HummingbirdTrochilidae-24%1970
BushtitAegithalidae-23%1970
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae-21%1968
Blue-throated Mountain-gemTrochilidae-21%1979
Gray CatbirdMimidae-21%1968
Lewis's WoodpeckerPicidae-19%1970
California GnatcatcherPolioptilidae-15%1974
Golden-fronted WoodpeckerPicidae-15%1969
Evening GrosbeakFringillidae-11%1968
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae-11%1968
WrentitSylviidae-10%1970
American RobinTurdidae-8%1968
Woodhouse's Scrub-JayCorvidae-4%1970
Northern CardinalCardinalidae-4%1968
Summer TanagerCardinalidae-3%1968
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+1%1968
Groove-billed AniCuculidae+3%1971
Magnolia WarblerParulidae+4%1968
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+4%1968
Mourning WarblerParulidae+10%1968
California Scrub-JayCorvidae+13%1970
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+13%1968
Brown-headed NuthatchSittidae+17%1968
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+17%1968
Carolina ChickadeeParidae+19%1968
Arctic WarblerPhylloscopidae+20%1984
Scott's OrioleIcteridae+20%1969
Juniper TitmouseParidae+20%1970
American RedstartParulidae+21%1968
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae+22%1968
Lawrence's GoldfinchFringillidae+25%1970
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+27%1968
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+29%1968
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+34%1968
Yellow WarblerParulidae+35%1968
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+36%1968
Western BluebirdTurdidae+38%1970
Tufted TitmouseParidae+38%1968
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+39%1968
Mexican JayCorvidae+43%1970
OvenbirdParulidae+45%1968
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+46%1968
Painted BuntingCardinalidae+46%1968
Costa's HummingbirdTrochilidae+48%1970
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+48%1968
Cape May WarblerParulidae+49%1969
Calliope HummingbirdTrochilidae+51%1970
Ladder-backed WoodpeckerPicidae+53%1969
Winter WrenTroglodytidae+55%1968
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+58%1968
Oak TitmouseParidae+60%1970
Tennessee WarblerParulidae+60%1968
Palm WarblerParulidae+60%1969
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+62%1968
Varied BuntingCardinalidae+67%1970
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae+69%1968
Nuttall's WoodpeckerPicidae+71%1970
Band-tailed PigeonColumbidae+72%1970
Bridled TitmouseParidae+82%1971
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae+85%1968
Pygmy NuthatchSittidae+88%1970
Acorn WoodpeckerPicidae+89%1970
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+95%1968
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae+98%1968
Blackburnian WarblerParulidae+103%1968
Black-throated Blue WarblerParulidae+105%1968
Red-cockaded WoodpeckerPicidae+105%1968
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+107%1968
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+108%1968
Yellow-bellied SapsuckerPicidae+108%1968
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae+111%1968
Canyon WrenTroglodytidae+112%1969
Black-crested TitmouseParidae+114%1969
Steller's JayCorvidae+115%1970
Black-throated Gray WarblerParulidae+117%1970
Nashville WarblerParulidae+123%1968
Black-chinned HummingbirdTrochilidae+126%1969
Bell's VireoVireonidae+130%1968
Cassin's FinchFringillidae+132%1970
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+140%1968
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae+150%1968
Red CrossbillFringillidae+150%1969
White-headed WoodpeckerPicidae+157%1970
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+157%1968
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+160%1968
Mountain ChickadeeParidae+160%1970
Pine WarblerParulidae+160%1968
Gray-cheeked ThrushTurdidae+167%1982
Northern ParulaParulidae+167%1968
Hooded WarblerParulidae+170%1968
Chestnut-backed ChickadeeParidae+177%1970
Bullock's OrioleIcteridae+186%1969
Warbling VireoVireonidae+187%1968
Boreal ChickadeeParidae+191%1968
Lesser GoldfinchFringillidae+201%1969
Townsend's SolitaireTurdidae+202%1970
Broad-billed HummingbirdTrochilidae+209%1971
Hutton's VireoVireonidae+210%1970
Anna's HummingbirdTrochilidae+216%1970
Hermit ThrushTurdidae+218%1968
Cassin's VireoVireonidae+219%1970
MacGillivray's WarblerParulidae+230%1970
Clark's NutcrackerCorvidae+231%1970
Northern WaterthrushParulidae+235%1968
Hooded OrioleIcteridae+238%1970
Kirtland's WarblerParulidae+241%2000
Grace's WarblerParulidae+246%1970
Painted RedstartParulidae+259%1975
Orange-crowned WarblerParulidae+259%1970
Mountain BluebirdTurdidae+278%1969
Broad-tailed HummingbirdTrochilidae+292%1970
Hermit WarblerParulidae+324%1970
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae+335%1968
Yellow-eyed JuncoPasserellidae+336%1976
Pine GrosbeakFringillidae+344%1972
White-crowned SparrowPasserellidae+365%1970
Hepatic TanagerCardinalidae+397%1970
Gray VireoVireonidae+397%1970
Rock WrenTroglodytidae+405%1969
Black-headed GrosbeakCardinalidae+426%1969
Blackpoll WarblerParulidae+426%1970
Green-tailed TowheePasserellidae+434%1970
Bohemian WaxwingBombycillidae+436%1976
Pine SiskinFringillidae+461%1968
Lazuli BuntingCardinalidae+466%1969
Black-backed WoodpeckerPicidae+467%1971
Pacific WrenTroglodytidae+468%1970
Spotted TowheePasserellidae+485%1969
Plumbeous VireoVireonidae+486%1969
Virginia's WarblerParulidae+521%1970
Varied ThrushTurdidae+591%1970
Green JayCorvidae+596%1970
Western TanagerCardinalidae+598%1969
Canada JayCorvidae+628%1969
Swainson's ThrushTurdidae+629%1968
Fox SparrowPasserellidae+650%1970
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+672%1968
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+676%1968
Wilson's WarblerParulidae+700%1968
Red-faced WarblerParulidae+705%1970
Olive WarblerPeucedramidae+760%1979
Red-breasted SapsuckerPicidae+790%1970
Lincoln's SparrowPasserellidae+791%1968
Townsend's WarblerParulidae+853%1970
Olive SparrowPasserellidae+862%1969
Long-billed ThrasherMimidae+874%1970
Golden-crowned SparrowPasserellidae11×1982
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae11×1968
Red-naped SapsuckerPicidae12×1970
Ruby-crowned KingletRegulidae12×1968
American Three-toed WoodpeckerPicidae13×1971
Black-capped VireoVireonidae19×1973
Williamson's SapsuckerPicidae23×1970
Swainson's WarblerParulidae39×1968
White-winged CrossbillFringillidae49×1972
American Tree SparrowPasserellidae86×1977
Mangrove CuckooCuculidaen/an/a
Buff-bellied HummingbirdTrochilidaen/an/a
Arizona WoodpeckerPicidaen/an/a
BluethroatMuscicapidaen/an/a
Northern WheatearMuscicapidaen/an/a
Altamira OrioleIcteridaen/an/a
Audubon's OrioleIcteridaen/an/a
Golden-cheeked WarblerParulidaen/an/a