BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-backed Woodpecker

PicidaeForest birdsPicoides arcticus

Black-backed Woodpecker has surged: up 450% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+450%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
189RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Black-backed Woodpecker

The Black-backed Woodpecker (Picoides arcticus) is a North American member of the Woodpeckers (Picidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
6–19.5 in long (15–50 cm) — a chisel-billed climber (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 189 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 14 states, most concentrated in the Northern Rockies.
Family
Picidae · Forest birds

Notable Black-backed Woodpecker TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-backed Woodpecker. See the full index history below.

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.01–0.02). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.01–0.02). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.010.02
20260.010.010.02
20270.010.010.02
20280.010.010.02
20290.010.010.02

Where the Black-backed Woodpecker Is Detected

BBS routes recording Black-backed Woodpecker, sized by most recent count.

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Trend by State

Black-backed Woodpecker population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska+182%200018
California+177%198222
Idaho-64%19938
Maine-53%197821
Michigan-28%197910
Minnesota-32%198115
Montana-52%198010
New Hampshireinsufficient datan/a2
New York+3%198210
Oregon+114%197336
South Dakota+18%19949
Washington-38%197117
Wisconsininsufficient datan/a5
Wyoming-2%19966

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Black-backed Woodpecker population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 4+385%200216
Northern Pacific Rainforest-85%19747
Great Basin+257%197328
Northern Rockies-4%197245
Boreal Hardwood Transition-28%197930
Atlantic Northern Forest-47%197731
Sierra Nevada+142%198416
Badlands and Prairies-16%199213

Black-backed Woodpecker Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 450% since 1971.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.