BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-backed Woodpecker In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Black-backed Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-16%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-backed Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±364.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±364.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±364.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.070.000.15
20250.070.000.15
20260.070.000.15
20270.070.000.15
20280.070.000.15

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Black-backed Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA22001
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA22018
Hehn DrawMONTANA12021
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA12013
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA12010
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA12023
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA12001
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA12017
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA12016
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA12001
SundanceWYOMING12002
MoskeeWYOMING12000
Moskee 2WYOMING12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.