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Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in California

All statesForest birds

Black-backed Woodpecker in California has surged: up 177% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+177%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-backed Woodpecker Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-backed Woodpecker in California. See the full index history below.

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in California is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±217.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±217.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in California is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±217.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.09
20260.040.000.09
20270.040.000.09
20280.040.000.09
20290.050.000.09

Black-backed Woodpecker Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Black-backed Woodpecker in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tionesta820212006
Hat Creek320042004
Lassen Park219851982
Sattley219941994
Crestview220242013
Medicine Mtn.220152000
Chilcoot220242024
Lakeshore220241980
Eagle Lake120142014
Westville120132013
Crowley Lake120162014
Tuolumne Grove120142014
Paxton120112011
Little Truckee120011997
Mt Shasta120141972
Butte Meadow120121990
Genesee119961994
Chaos Crater120191991
Bartle120172012
Johnsville120152010
Woodfords120092004
Benton120232023

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.