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Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Black-backed Woodpecker in New York has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+3%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-backed Woodpecker Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-backed Woodpecker in New York. See the full index history below.

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.030.000.05
20230.030.000.05
20240.030.000.05
20250.030.000.05
20260.030.000.05

Black-backed Woodpecker Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Black-backed Woodpecker in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Parishville320162011
St Regis Fls220162011
Inlet220102010
Degrasse119991999
Gabriels120212002
Underwood119901990
Horseshoe L.120062006
N Wilmurt119871987
Blue Ridge N119881988
Newcomb120171972

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshireoregonsouth-dakotawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.