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Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Black-backed Woodpecker in South Dakota has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+69%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-backed Woodpecker Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-backed Woodpecker in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in South Dakota is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±180.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±180.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in South Dakota is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±180.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.25
20270.110.000.25
20280.110.000.25
20290.110.000.25
20300.110.000.25

Black-backed Woodpecker Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Black-backed Woodpecker in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rochford220182012
Long Draw220252011
Silver City220012001
Hazelrodt120171992
Lightning Cr120162001
Hill City120102007
Wind Cave Np120012001
Custer120131971
Elk Mountain120011994

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.