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Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Black-backed Woodpecker in Washington has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-38%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-backed Woodpecker Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-backed Woodpecker in Washington. See the full index history below.

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Washington is projected to fall about 77% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-77%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Washington is projected to fall about 77% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.09
20260.030.000.09
20270.030.000.09
20280.030.000.09
20290.020.000.09

Black-backed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Black-backed Woodpecker in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E. Mt. Adams420181999
Ellensburg320242023
Blewett Pass320232005
Spring Lake219901982
Mt St Helens219981998
Cusick120181990
Ronald120242024
Leavenworth120052005
Omak Creek120242009
Keller119801969
Deer Park120112010
L Pend O Nwr120242016
Mt. Adams120152015
Lake Chelan120122001
Rimrock120211968
Curlew120132013
Cloverland120062006

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.