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Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Black-backed Woodpecker in Oregon has surged: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+114%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-backed Woodpecker Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-backed Woodpecker has surged in Oregon: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Oregon is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.03–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Oregon is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.03–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.020.35
20260.190.020.35
20270.190.020.35
20280.190.020.35
20290.190.030.36

Black-backed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Black-backed Woodpecker in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paisley1020241973
Bly 2620242009
Barnes Val619871987
Bald Mtn.520241992
Silvies420242014
Barnhouse320241999
Desolation320072007
Chinchalo320241993
Summit Pr220241991
Logdell219861986
Clearwater220212021
Silver Creek220081992
Sisters220221998
Hash Rock220011991
Albee119951995
Lapham Res.119921992
Ochoco119791979
Wizard Falls120152004
Dell Spring119901969
Camp Sherman119961974
Mount Vernon120242005
Granite120232023
Elk Lake120181972
Bly119951995
Badger Creek120152015

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorksouth-dakotawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.