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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Black-backed Woodpecker in Minnesota has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+7%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-backed Woodpecker Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-backed Woodpecker in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Minnesota is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Minnesota is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.07
20270.030.000.07
20280.030.000.07
20290.030.000.07
20300.030.000.07

Black-backed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Black-backed Woodpecker in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sawbill Camp220251995
Jordan220221994
Lockport120252016
Sawbill Lndg120252001
Island Lake119801980
Mcgregor120182018
Babbitt120032003
Cass Lake120051985
Crane Lake120171971
Glendale120101993
Lude120222022
Red Lake120182018
Nett Lake120212016
Cromwell120081999
Hovland119821982

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaidahomainemichiganmontananew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.