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Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Black-backed Woodpecker in Montana has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-63%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-backed Woodpecker Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-backed Woodpecker in Montana. See the full index history below.

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±214.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±214.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±214.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.06
20270.030.000.06
20280.020.000.06
20290.020.000.06
20300.020.000.06

Black-backed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Black-backed Woodpecker in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ninemile420112004
Inside Road219991990
Elevation Mt220181994
Skalkho-Rye220122004
Sula120131986
Pagil Gulch120252025
Greenough119961996
Whitefish Lake120162016
Arlee120122012
Hehn Draw120212021
Woodman120191972

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaidahomainemichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.