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Species · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in Idaho

All statesForest birds

Black-backed Woodpecker in Idaho has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

-50%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-backed Woodpecker Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-backed Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Idaho: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Idaho is projected to fall about 91% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-91%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Idaho is projected to fall about 91% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.010.000.09
20270.010.000.09
20280.010.000.09
20290.010.000.08
20300.010.000.08

Black-backed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Black-backed Woodpecker in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cape Horn219861986
Burgdorf220161999
Coolin220251986
Mivoden120002000
Lolo Pass120012001
Cabarton119941986
Yellow Pine120141993
Featherville120002000

Black-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniamainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.