BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-backed Woodpecker In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Black-backed Woodpecker in Great Basin has surged: up 256% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+256%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-backed Woodpecker in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Black-backed Woodpecker In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.11 (95% range 0.03–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.11 (95% range 0.03–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.020.18
20270.100.020.18
20280.100.020.19
20290.110.030.19
20300.110.030.19

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Black-backed Woodpecker in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TionestaCALIFORNIA82021
PaisleyOREGON72025
Barnes ValOREGON61987
Bald Mtn.OREGON52024
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON42018
ChinchaloOREGON32025
Blewett PassWASHINGTON32023
Medicine Mtn.CALIFORNIA22015
SistersOREGON22022
EllensburgWASHINGTON22025
BentonCALIFORNIA12023
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA12016
BartleCALIFORNIA12017
Dell SpringOREGON11990
Camp ShermanOREGON11996
BlyOREGON11995
Davis LakeOREGON12023
Lapham Res.OREGON11992
Wizard FallsOREGON12015
Bly 2OREGON12025
Badger CreekOREGON12015
Picture FlatOREGON12017
PauninaOREGON12024
LakeviewOREGON12023
RimrockWASHINGTON12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.