BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-backed Woodpecker In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Black-backed Woodpecker in Great Basin has surged: up 257% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+257%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-backed Woodpecker has surged in Great Basin: up 257% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Great Basin is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.02–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Great Basin is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.02–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.020.18
20260.100.020.19
20270.100.020.19
20280.110.020.19
20290.110.020.19

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Black-backed Woodpecker in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaisleyOREGON102024
TionestaCALIFORNIA82021
Barnes ValOREGON61987
Bly 2OREGON62024
Bald Mtn.OREGON52024
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON42018
ChinchaloOREGON32024
EllensburgWASHINGTON32024
Blewett PassWASHINGTON32023
Medicine Mtn.CALIFORNIA22015
SistersOREGON22022
BentonCALIFORNIA12023
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA12016
BartleCALIFORNIA12017
Dell SpringOREGON11990
Camp ShermanOREGON11996
BlyOREGON11995
Davis LakeOREGON12023
Lapham Res.OREGON11992
Wizard FallsOREGON12015
Badger CreekOREGON12015
Picture FlatOREGON12017
PauninaOREGON12024
LakeviewOREGON12023
RimrockWASHINGTON12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.