BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-backed Woodpecker In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Black-backed Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-28%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-backed Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.05
20260.020.000.05
20270.020.000.05
20280.020.000.05
20290.020.000.05

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Black-backed Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JordanMINNESOTA22022
OntonagonMICHIGAN11971
MareniscoMICHIGAN11995
Ned LakeMICHIGAN11996
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN12008
ShingletonMICHIGAN12001
MuskallongeMICHIGAN12004
TahquamenonMICHIGAN11980
RacoMICHIGAN12024
Betchler LksMICHIGAN12022
Seney NwrMICHIGAN12023
CromwellMINNESOTA12008
HovlandMINNESOTA11982
LockportMINNESOTA12023
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA12015
Island LakeMINNESOTA11980
Crane LakeMINNESOTA12017
LudeMINNESOTA12022
McgregorMINNESOTA12018
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA12019
BabbittMINNESOTA12003
GlendaleMINNESOTA12010
Red LakeMINNESOTA12018
Cass LakeMINNESOTA12005
Nett LakeMINNESOTA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.