BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-backed Woodpecker In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Black-backed Woodpecker in Northern Rockies has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+26%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-backed Woodpecker in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Black-backed Woodpecker In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.000.12
20270.040.000.11
20280.040.000.11
20290.040.000.11
20300.040.000.11

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Black-backed Woodpecker in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NinemileMONTANA42011
SilviesOREGON42024
BarnhouseOREGON32024
DesolationOREGON32007
Cape HornIDAHO21986
CoolinIDAHO22025
BurgdorfIDAHO22016
Skalkho-RyeMONTANA22012
Inside RoadMONTANA21999
Elevation MtMONTANA22018
LogdellOREGON21986
Hash RockOREGON22001
Summit PrOREGON22024
OchocoOREGON22025
Donelly 2OREGON22025
Spring LakeWASHINGTON21990
MivodenIDAHO12000
Lolo PassIDAHO12001
CabartonIDAHO11994
Yellow PineIDAHO12014
FeathervilleIDAHO12000
ArleeMONTANA12012
WoodmanMONTANA12019
SulaMONTANA12013
Whitefish LakeMONTANA12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.