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Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-backed Woodpecker In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Black-backed Woodpecker in Northern Rockies has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-4%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-backed Woodpecker in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.11
20260.040.000.11
20270.040.000.11
20280.040.000.11
20290.040.000.11

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Black-backed Woodpecker in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NinemileMONTANA42011
SilviesOREGON42024
BarnhouseOREGON32024
DesolationOREGON32007
Cape HornIDAHO21986
CoolinIDAHO21986
BurgdorfIDAHO22016
Skalkho-RyeMONTANA22012
Inside RoadMONTANA21999
Elevation MtMONTANA22018
LogdellOREGON21986
Silver CreekOREGON22008
Hash RockOREGON22001
Summit PrOREGON22024
Spring LakeWASHINGTON21990
MivodenIDAHO12000
Lolo PassIDAHO12001
CabartonIDAHO11994
Yellow PineIDAHO12014
FeathervilleIDAHO12000
ArleeMONTANA12012
WoodmanMONTANA12019
SulaMONTANA12013
Whitefish LakeMONTANA12016
GreenoughMONTANA11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.