BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-backed Woodpecker In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Black-backed Woodpecker in Atlantic Northern Forest has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-47%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-backed Woodpecker in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-backed Woodpecker in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.010.000.08
20240.010.000.08
20250.010.000.07
20260.010.000.07
20270.000.000.07

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Black-backed Woodpecker in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CooperMAINE61981
NorthfieldMAINE31981
EastbrookMAINE21985
Moose RiverMAINE21984
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE21990
InletNEW-YORK22010
St Regis FlsNEW-YORK22016
Wilson MillsMAINE11999
Otisfield GrMAINE11986
Carrying PlMAINE12022
CharlestonMAINE11981
BaxterMAINE11984
WinnMAINE11996
MedwayMAINE11992
Clayton LakeMAINE11977
Pillsbury PdMAINE11968
Horse MtnMAINE12009
St DavidMAINE12004
Big TwentyMAINE11998
Weeks BrookMAINE12011
Priestly Br.MAINE12000
NesowadnehunMAINE11997
Heron LakeMAINE12001
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE11986
Jeffers NtchNEW-HAMPSHIRE12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.