BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Jay Population Analysis

CorvidaeForest birdsPerisoreus canadensis

Canada Jay has surged: up 628% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+628%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
476RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Canada Jay

The Canada Jay (Perisoreus canadensis) is a North American member of the Crows, Jays & Magpies (Corvidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
10–27.5 in long (25–70 cm) — a medium to large songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 476 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 18 states, most concentrated in the Northern Rockies.
Family
Corvidae · Forest birds

Notable Canada Jay TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Jay. See the full index history below.

Canada Jay Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.17–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.17–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.280.160.40
20270.280.160.40
20280.290.170.41
20290.290.170.41
20300.290.170.42

Where the Canada Jay Is Detected

BBS routes recording Canada Jay, sized by most recent count.

Canada Jay Population Trend by State

Canada Jay population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska+19%197588
Arizonainsufficient datan/a1
California-42%197713
Colorado+35%197143
Idaho+66%197228
Maine-50%197636
Michigan-50%197421
Minnesota+34%197025
Montana-59%197031
New Hampshire+58%19753
New York-2%19887
Oregon-46%197069
South Dakota+259%197114
Utah-86%197914
Vermontinsufficient datan/a1
Washington+215%197343
Wisconsin-72%197310
Wyoming-84%197029

Canada Jay Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Canada Jay population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-19%19878
BCR 4+52%197668
Northern Pacific Rainforest+32%197060
Great Basin+9%197040
Northern Rockies-34%1970118
Boreal Hardwood Transition-9%197056
Atlantic Northern Forest-13%196946
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+153%197057
Badlands and Prairies+41%197117

Canada Jay Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 628% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.