BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Jay Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Canada Jay in Utah has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-89%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Jay Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Jay has collapsed in Utah: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Canada Jay Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Utah is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±393.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±393.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Utah is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±393.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.17
20260.000.000.17
20270.000.000.17
20280.000.000.17
20290.000.000.17

Canada Jay Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Canada Jay in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Uintah Nf619871987
Navajo Lake619741974
Wasatch Nf420241988
Altonah319791970
Ferron320022002
Soapstone320131992
Gooseberry220062000
Grizzly Rdge220231992
La Sal119961996
Dixie Nf120062006
La Sal 2120042004
Heber Mtn.120111996
La Sal 3120242011
Jericho Junction119971997

Canada Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotavermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.