BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Jay Population Trend in Idaho

All statesForest birds

Canada Jay in Idaho has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+66%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Jay Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Jay has risen sharply in Idaho: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Canada Jay Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Idaho is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Idaho is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.290.000.65
20270.290.000.65
20280.290.000.65
20290.290.000.65
20300.290.000.65

Canada Jay Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Canada Jay in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pierce719981990
Grangeville620251986
Marble Creek620251991
Burgdorf520251988
Avery420231979
Challis420211979
Naples320221972
Cape Horn320241987
Centerville320152015
Mivoden220161978
Squirrel220211971
Yellow Pine220141989
Featherville220141989
Nezperce119941994
Lolo Pass120191992
Golden120091987
N Fork Cda R120132001
Cascade119751975
Rochat Divde120221993
Springfield119691969
Coolin120231986
Baldy Mountain120152014
Sawtooth City 2120222022
Salmon River119951994
Cobalt120071993

Canada Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradomainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.