BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Jay Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Canada Jay in Oregon has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-46%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Jay Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Jay in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Canada Jay Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Oregon is projected to rise about 158% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.14–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+158%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Oregon is projected to rise about 158% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.14–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.560.140.99
20270.560.140.99
20280.560.140.99
20290.560.140.99
20300.560.140.99

Canada Jay Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Canada Jay in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whiskey Spg.820221992
Lapham Res.420002000
Eagle Rock419771976
Wallowa420252025
Waldport419991993
Fisher420011997
Barnhouse420251998
Black Mtn.420041993
Hash Rock420221983
Cinderella420231993
Davis Lake420222000
Shellrock320241968
Svensen319921992
Camp Sherman319941976
Mount Vernon320191988
Silver Creek320191990
Picture Flat320142000
Sisters320222022
Molalla220242006
Ochoco219811973
Logdell220021994
Nicolai Mtn.220241993
Bull Run220162008
Paisley220241973
Elkton219811973

Canada Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorksouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.