BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Jay Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesGeneralists

Canada Jay in Wyoming has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-93%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Jay Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Jay has collapsed in Wyoming: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Canada Jay Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Wyoming is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±290.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±290.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Wyoming is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±290.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.090.000.41
20250.080.000.40
20260.080.000.40
20270.070.000.39
20280.070.000.39

Canada Jay Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Canada Jay in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nowood1519901990
Ryan Park1020151993
Savery619891989
Ne Entrance520071997
Moran520152004
Sundance420131975
Yoder419701970
West Thumb419821982
Fox Park420231992
Colter Bay319971968
Hunter Peak319881982
Savery 2320142014
Mammoth220151982
Horse Creek220121982
Buckskin Mtn220171980
Moskee 2220162002
Hayden Val119861985
Yellowstone120221987
Dubois120141969
Moose120211976
Bald Mtn120211990
Crazy Woman120131980
Moskee120011980
Wilson119921979
Gebo120102010

Canada Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.