BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Jay Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Canada Jay in Montana has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-59%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Jay Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Jay has fallen sharply in Montana: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Canada Jay Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Montana is projected to rise about 437% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±664.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+437%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±664.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Montana is projected to rise about 437% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±664.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.320.000.69
20270.320.000.69
20280.320.000.69
20290.320.000.69
20300.320.000.69

Canada Jay Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Canada Jay in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Greenoagh 2820092005
Elliston520131972
Thompson Riv420191995
St Regis320251977
Whitefish Lake320182016
Greenoagh 3320212013
Fish Creek320221997
Skalkaho319981992
St Mary219951995
Threemile Wa220231998
Cramer Creek220191996
Greenough220041995
Elevation Mt220221994
Polson219941986
Woodman220191979
Inside Road220211990
Sula220231988
Noxon220232003
Libby Dam120131979
Logan Pass120161988
Victor120241997
Arlee120251968
Clinton120161996
Chestnut120111968
East Glacier Park120252017

Canada Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.