BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Jay Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Canada Jay in Montana has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-36%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Jay Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Jay in Montana. See the full index history below.

Canada Jay Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±542.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±542.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±542.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.000.70
20260.340.000.70
20270.340.000.70
20280.340.000.70
20290.340.000.71

Canada Jay Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Canada Jay in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Greenoagh 2820092005
Elliston520131972
Thompson Riv420191995
Whitefish Lake320182016
Greenoagh 3320212013
Fish Creek320221997
Skalkaho319981992
St Mary219951995
Threemile Wa220231998
Cramer Creek220191996
Greenough220041995
Elevation Mt220221994
St Regis220221977
Polson219941986
Woodman220191979
Inside Road220211990
Sula220231988
Noxon220232003
Libby Dam120131979
Logan Pass120161988
Victor120241997
Arlee120191968
Clinton120161996
Chestnut120111968
East Glacier Park120172017

Canada Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.