BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Jay Population Trend in Colorado

All statesGeneralists

Canada Jay in Colorado has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+47%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Jay Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Jay in Colorado. See the full index history below.

Canada Jay Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Colorado is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.10–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+67%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Colorado is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.10–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.090.57
20260.330.100.57
20270.340.100.58
20280.340.100.58
20290.340.100.58

Canada Jay Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Canada Jay in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Buffalo Park1420231992
Mount Evans520241996
Pinos Creek519901988
South Fork520241994
Weston Pass 2420222003
Red Cliff320241989
Guanella Pas320192002
Pinon320241992
Cochetopa Pass320231998
Maybell219711971
Parlin220221968
Rio Grnds Rs220001995
Summitville220121991
Lost Lake220181993
Castleton220241991
Steamboat L.220171997
Guffey220171998
Dolores Riv220052005
Ragged Mtn.220092009
Marshall Pas220181995
Stillwater Pass 2220172011
Deadman Rd.220241995
Flattops220191992
Thomasville220181992
Tincup220211992

Canada Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniaidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.