BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Jay Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Canada Jay in Michigan has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-50%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Jay Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Jay in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Canada Jay Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±188.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±188.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±188.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.050.000.18
20210.050.000.18
20220.050.000.18
20230.040.000.17
20240.040.000.17

Canada Jay Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Canada Jay in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Raco519941991
Cunard419941994
Ensign320062006
Bergland219901990
Imp Lake220072007
Crystal Fls219851985
Creighton220051981
Isabella219771977
Tahquamenon219931993
Marenisco119981994
Ned Lake120191994
Hiawatha Nf119931993
Gibbs City120131993
Maple Grove119741969
Ishpeming119941981
Brocky Lake120151995
Wilson120091998
Seney Nwr120091992
Sidnaw120151996
Scott'S Marsh120062006
Pine River120121993

Canada Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomaineminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.