BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Jay Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Canada Jay in Washington has surged: up 162% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+162%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Jay Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Jay has surged in Washington: up 162% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Canada Jay Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.58 (95% range 0.27–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.58 (95% range 0.27–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.550.240.86
20260.560.250.87
20270.570.260.88
20280.570.260.88
20290.580.270.89

Canada Jay Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Canada Jay in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rimrock620241970
Hurricane Rg620241992
Ozette419951992
Packwood420241975
Carlton420061992
Glacier320241975
Leavenworth320212001
Spring Lake320221986
Greenwater320242015
Chewelah220191978
Kamilche219941989
Bunker Hill220241971
Asotin220082008
Sullivan Lake 2220232000
Ronald220191973
White Chuck220232023
Blewett Pass220241992
Mt Rainier220211990
Pe Ell220112008
Mt. Adams220241993
Cloverland220241997
Montesand120131988
Cascade Riv120032003
Keller120051971
No Cascades120101988

Canada Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.