BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Jay Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Canada Jay in Alaska has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+19%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Jay Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Jay in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Canada Jay Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.9 (95% range 3.0–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.9 (95% range 3.0–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.72.98.6
20275.82.98.6
20285.83.08.7
20295.93.08.7
20305.93.08.7

Canada Jay Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Canada Jay in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nabesna Road3120251989
Chistochina2620251990
Sourdough2420251983
Lake Louise2320251993
Gweek River2120021994
Livengood1920212007
Tower Bluffs1920251994
Ruby1920251994
Kuskulana1820251990
Chatanika R1620251968
Kanuti Lake1620242006
Northway1420251989
Swan Lake Rd1420251982
Nicholai Sl1420251993
Delta1420241995
Eagle1320251982
Nebesna1319751975
Circle1120251986
Cantwell1120251982
Slana1020241994
Mt. Fairplay1020251993
Mud River1020241993
Tatalina1020191995
Sheep Mtn920251983
Cohoe920232012

Canada Jay Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.