BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Jay Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Canada Jay in Alaska has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+9%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Jay Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Jay in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Canada Jay Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Alaska is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 2.9–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Alaska is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 2.9–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.72.88.5
20265.72.88.6
20275.72.98.6
20285.82.98.7
20295.82.98.7

Canada Jay Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Canada Jay in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sourdough2120241983
Gweek River2120021994
Livengood1920212007
Nicholai Sl1820241993
Eagle1720241982
Northway1620231989
Kanuti Lake1620242006
Ruby1520241994
Chatanika R1420231968
Sheep Mtn1420171983
Delta1420241995
Nebesna1319751975
Tower Bluffs1120231994
Chicken1120241992
Slana1020241994
Mud River1020241993
Tatalina1020191995
Savage920241986
Cohoe920232012
Dillingham (Short)919841984
Caribou Mtn.920241993
Unalakleet River920241996
Moose Creek920221993
Mt. Fairplay920241993
Circle820241986

Canada Jay Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.