BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Jay Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Canada Jay in South Dakota has surged: up 259% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+259%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Jay Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Jay has surged in South Dakota: up 259% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Canada Jay Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±411.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±411.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±411.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.000.83
20260.380.000.83
20270.380.000.83
20280.390.000.83
20290.390.000.84

Canada Jay Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Canada Jay in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rochford420181992
Long Draw420241993
Hazelrodt320211992
Pleasant Val320241992
Black Fox320171993
Englewood320211994
Hill City220131993
Custer220241968
Silver City220121992
Lightning Cr120221993
Elk Mountain120041992
Wind Cave Np120182004
Roubaix Lk119841971
Norbeck120021992

Canada Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.