BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Jay Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Canada Jay in Minnesota has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+34%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Jay Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Jay in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Canada Jay Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Minnesota is projected to rise about 190% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.01–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+190%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±115.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Minnesota is projected to rise about 190% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.01–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.260.010.51
20270.260.010.51
20280.260.010.51
20290.260.010.51
20300.260.010.51

Canada Jay Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Canada Jay in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crane Lake420231970
Jordan420211993
Cass Lake320062006
Nett Lake320242013
Babbitt320231994
Chisholm320232023
Hovland220171984
Sawbill Lndg220241973
Hart Lake220251968
Lude220221996
Sawbill Camp220231993
Nebish119821982
Cromwell120241969
Lockport120251972
Floodwood120221979
Island Lake119891974
Sherry Lake120191969
Debs119971988
Little Fork120211988
Waskish120221988
Mcgregor120252013
Bigfork120161993
Blackduck120192016
Glendale120252004
Red Lake120221993

Canada Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganmontananew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.