BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Jay Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Canada Jay in Minnesota has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+35%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Jay Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Jay in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Canada Jay Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Minnesota is projected to rise about 91% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.03–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+91%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Minnesota is projected to rise about 91% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.03–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.020.52
20260.270.030.52
20270.270.030.52
20280.280.030.52
20290.280.030.52

Canada Jay Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Canada Jay in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hart Lake420151968
Crane Lake420231970
Jordan420211993
Cass Lake320062006
Nett Lake320242013
Babbitt320231994
Chisholm320232023
Hovland220171984
Sawbill Lndg220241973
Lude220221996
Sawbill Camp220231993
Glendale220242004
Nebish119821982
Cromwell120241969
Lockport120161972
Floodwood120221979
Island Lake119891974
Sherry Lake120191969
Debs119971988
Little Fork120211988
Waskish120221988
Mcgregor120132013
Bigfork120161993
Blackduck120192016
Red Lake120221993

Canada Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganmontananew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.