BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Jay Population Trend in Maine

All statesGeneralists

Canada Jay in Maine has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-47%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Jay Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Jay in Maine. See the full index history below.

Canada Jay Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Maine is projected to rise about 19% by 2028 — from 0.13 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Maine is projected to rise about 19% by 2028 — from 0.13 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.160.000.47
20250.160.000.47
20260.150.000.46
20270.150.000.46
20280.150.000.46

Canada Jay Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Canada Jay in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Seboomook Lk420042004
Priestly Br.420111994
Big Twenty320081993
Wilson Mills220231984
Heron Lake220031984
Cooper220031981
Big Twenty 2220092009
Carrabassett220101985
Cambridge219681968
Wytopitlock219941983
Medway219931991
Lake Moxie220182018
St David220041985
Yankeetuladi220091994
Bethel120012001
Nesowadnehun120191994
Eastbrook119931993
Hancock119691969
Aurora119911991
Northfield119811980
Carrying Pl120192014
Baker Lake 2120102010
Baxter119771977
Greenville119831976
Benedicta119931993

Canada Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.