BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Jay Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesGeneralists

Canada Jay in Wisconsin has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-72%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Jay Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Jay has fallen sharply in Wisconsin: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Canada Jay Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2021TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2021 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±106%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692021
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20170.030.000.08
20180.030.000.08
20190.030.000.08
20200.020.000.08
20210.020.000.08

Canada Jay Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Canada Jay in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Land O Lakes320081969
Montreal220051994
Rhinelander220001998
Eagle River220151969
Chaffey119961978
Shanagolden120161969
Conover120091999
Cavour120041998
Mcnaughton119971976
Popple River120081970

Canada Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.