BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Jay In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Canada Jay in Northern Rockies has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-31%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Jay in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Canada Jay In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 181% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.01–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+181%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.50Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.9895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±114.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 181% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.01–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.490.010.98
20260.500.010.98
20270.500.010.98
20280.500.010.98
20290.500.010.98

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Canada Jay in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NowoodWYOMING151990
Greenoagh 2MONTANA82009
BarnhouseOREGON82024
PierceIDAHO71998
SaveryWYOMING61989
EllistonMONTANA52013
Ne EntranceWYOMING52007
MoranWYOMING52015
AveryIDAHO42023
ChallisIDAHO42021
Thompson RivMONTANA42019
Eagle RockOREGON41977
Hash RockOREGON42022
Black Mtn.OREGON42004
West ThumbWYOMING41982
NaplesIDAHO32022
GrangevilleIDAHO32024
Cape HornIDAHO32024
CentervilleIDAHO32015
Fish CreekMONTANA32022
SkalkahoMONTANA31998
Whitefish LakeMONTANA32018
Greenoagh 3MONTANA32021
AlbeeOREGON32022
Mount VernonOREGON32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.