BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Jay In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Canada Jay in Northern Pacific Rainforest has increased: up 30% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+30%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Jay in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Canada Jay In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.23–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.64Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.23–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.620.221.0
20260.620.221.0
20270.630.231.0
20280.630.231.0
20290.640.231.0

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Canada Jay in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheep MtnALASKA142017
Whiskey Spg.OREGON82022
Hurricane RgWASHINGTON62024
NavarroCALIFORNIA51973
Redwood N.P. 2CALIFORNIA52012
ClearwaterOREGON52021
Warner Mtn.OREGON52024
CraigALASKA41991
Thorne BayALASKA41991
HopeALASKA42024
WaldportOREGON41999
CinderellaOREGON42023
FisherOREGON42001
OzetteWASHINGTON41995
PackwoodWASHINGTON42024
SewardALASKA31984
Kenai Lake (Short)ALASKA31992
ShellrockOREGON32023
SvensenOREGON31992
SantiamOREGON32022
GreenwaterWASHINGTON32024
Moose PassALASKA21985
Alpenglow (Short)ALASKA22012
Offield MtnCALIFORNIA22009
ElktonOREGON21981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.