BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Jay In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Canada Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+152%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Jay has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Canada Jay In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.08–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.08–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.070.51
20260.290.070.51
20270.300.080.52
20280.300.080.52
20290.300.080.52

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Canada Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO142023
Ryan ParkWYOMING102015
Navajo LakeUTAH61974
Uintah NfUTAH61987
Pinos CreekCOLORADO51990
South ForkCOLORADO52024
Mount EvansCOLORADO52024
Weston Pass 2COLORADO42022
Wasatch NfUTAH42024
Fox ParkWYOMING42023
Red CliffCOLORADO32024
Guanella PasCOLORADO32019
PinonCOLORADO32024
Cochetopa PassCOLORADO32023
AltonahUTAH31979
SoapstoneUTAH32013
FerronUTAH32002
ParlinCOLORADO22022
Lost LakeCOLORADO22018
CastletonCOLORADO22024
GuffeyCOLORADO22017
Dolores RivCOLORADO22005
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO22000
SummitvilleCOLORADO22012
Deadman Rd.COLORADO22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.