BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Jay In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Canada Jay in Boreal Hardwood Transition has edged down: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-10%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Jay in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Canada Jay In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 129% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+129%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±115.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 129% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.000.50
20260.240.000.50
20270.240.000.51
20280.240.000.51
20290.240.000.51

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Canada Jay in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RacoMICHIGAN51994
CunardMICHIGAN41994
Hart LakeMINNESOTA42015
Crane LakeMINNESOTA42023
JordanMINNESOTA42021
EnsignMICHIGAN32006
BabbittMINNESOTA32023
ChisholmMINNESOTA32023
Cass LakeMINNESOTA32006
Nett LakeMINNESOTA32024
Land O LakesWISCONSIN32008
BerglandMICHIGAN21990
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN21985
CreightonMICHIGAN22005
IsabellaMICHIGAN21977
TahquamenonMICHIGAN21993
Imp LakeMICHIGAN22007
HovlandMINNESOTA22017
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA22024
LudeMINNESOTA22022
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA22023
GlendaleMINNESOTA22024
MontrealWISCONSIN22005
Eagle RiverWISCONSIN22015
RhinelanderWISCONSIN22000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.