BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Jay In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Canada Jay in Atlantic Northern Forest has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-11%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Jay in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Canada Jay In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±191.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.100.000.24
20250.100.000.24
20260.100.000.24
20270.100.000.24
20280.100.000.24

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Canada Jay in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Seboomook LkMAINE42004
Priestly Br.MAINE42011
Horseshoe L.NEW-YORK42016
Big TwentyMAINE32008
Wilson MillsMAINE22023
CooperMAINE22003
CarrabassettMAINE22010
CambridgeMAINE21968
WytopitlockMAINE21994
MedwayMAINE21993
St DavidMAINE22004
YankeetuladiMAINE22009
Heron LakeMAINE22003
Big Twenty 2MAINE22009
Lake MoxieMAINE22018
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE22007
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK21988
MiddlesexVERMONT22005
BethelMAINE12001
EastbrookMAINE11993
HancockMAINE11969
AuroraMAINE11991
NorthfieldMAINE11981
Carrying PlMAINE12019
BaxterMAINE11977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.