BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Jay In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Forest birds

Canada Jay in BCR 2 has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

-19%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Jay in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Canada Jay In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.003.8
20271.10.003.7
20281.10.003.7
20291.10.003.7
20301.10.003.7

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Canada Jay in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gweek RiverALASKA212002
Dillingham (Short)ALASKA91984
King SalmonALASKA52025
Katmai N.P.ALASKA32025
St. Mary'SALASKA21999
TupuknukALASKA21995
Selawik (Short)ALASKA21987
DillinghamALASKA12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.