BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Jay In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Forest birds

Canada Jay in BCR 4 has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+52%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Jay has risen sharply in BCR 4: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Canada Jay In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.4 (95% range 5.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.4 (95% range 5.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.14.813
20279.24.814
20289.24.914
20299.35.014
20309.45.014

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Canada Jay in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nabesna RoadALASKA312025
ChistochinaALASKA262025
SourdoughALASKA242025
Lake LouiseALASKA232025
LivengoodALASKA192021
Tower BluffsALASKA192025
RubyALASKA192025
KuskulanaALASKA182025
Chatanika RALASKA162025
Kanuti LakeALASKA162024
NorthwayALASKA142025
Swan Lake RdALASKA142025
Nicholai SlALASKA142025
DeltaALASKA142024
EagleALASKA132025
NebesnaALASKA131975
CircleALASKA112025
CantwellALASKA112025
SlanaALASKA102024
Mt. FairplayALASKA102025
Mud RiverALASKA102024
TatalinaALASKA102019
CohoeALASKA92023
Unalakleet RiverALASKA92024
Moose CreekALASKA92022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.