BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Jay In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Generalists

Canada Jay in BCR 4 has increased: up 44% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+44%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Jay in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

Canada Jay In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 5.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 5.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.14.713
20269.14.813
20279.24.814
20289.34.914
20299.35.014

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Canada Jay in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SourdoughALASKA212024
LivengoodALASKA192021
Nicholai SlALASKA182024
EagleALASKA172024
NorthwayALASKA162023
Kanuti LakeALASKA162024
RubyALASKA152024
Chatanika RALASKA142023
DeltaALASKA142024
NebesnaALASKA131975
Tower BluffsALASKA112023
ChickenALASKA112024
SlanaALASKA102024
Mud RiverALASKA102024
TatalinaALASKA102019
SavageALASKA92024
CohoeALASKA92023
Caribou Mtn.ALASKA92024
Unalakleet RiverALASKA92024
Moose CreekALASKA92022
Mt. FairplayALASKA92024
CircleALASKA82024
Chena RiverALASKA81988
Swan Lake RdALASKA82023
Burma RoadALASKA82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.