BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Jay In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Canada Jay in Great Basin has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+26%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Jay in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Canada Jay In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Great Basin is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.02–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Great Basin is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.02–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.020.20
20260.110.020.20
20270.110.020.20
20280.110.020.20
20290.110.020.20

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Canada Jay in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA71998
RimrockWASHINGTON62024
Medicine Mtn.CALIFORNIA52014
Davis LakeOREGON42022
Lapham Res.OREGON42000
CarltonWASHINGTON42006
TionestaCALIFORNIA32019
Camp ShermanOREGON31994
Picture FlatOREGON32014
SistersOREGON32022
ChinchaloOREGON32022
GlacierWASHINGTON32024
LeavenworthWASHINGTON32021
PaisleyOREGON22024
BlyOREGON21997
Bly 2OREGON22024
LakeviewOREGON22024
AsotinWASHINGTON22008
RonaldWASHINGTON22019
White ChuckWASHINGTON22023
Blewett PassWASHINGTON22024
BartleCALIFORNIA12021
SquirrelIDAHO12000
SpringfieldIDAHO11969
Dell SpringOREGON11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.