BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Jay In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Canada Jay in Badlands and Prairies has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+42%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Jay in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Canada Jay In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±639.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+80%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±639.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Jay in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±639.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.000.47
20260.230.000.47
20270.230.000.47
20280.230.000.47
20290.230.000.47

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Canada Jay in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA42024
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA42018
SundanceWYOMING42013
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA32024
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA32017
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA32021
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA32021
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA22013
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA22012
Moskee 2WYOMING22016
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA11984
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA12002
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA12004
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA12022
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA12018
MoskeeWYOMING12001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.