BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Spotted Towhee Population Analysis

PasserellidaeForest birdsPipilo maculatus

Spotted Towhee has surged: up 485% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+485%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1,073RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Spotted Towhee

A boldly patterned, red-eyed towhee of western brush and woodland edges, the Spotted Towhee rummages noisily in leaf litter.

Size
6.5–8.5 in long, about 1.4 oz (17–21 cm, 40 g)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects, seeds and berries scratched from the ground.
Range
Recorded on 1,073 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 17 states, most concentrated in the Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Family
Passerellidae · Forest birds
Conservation
Least Concern

Notable Spotted Towhee TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has surged in surveyed states: up 485% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Spotted Towhee Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.3 (95% range 1.7–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.3 (95% range 1.7–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.62.8
20272.21.62.8
20282.31.62.9
20292.31.72.9
20302.31.72.9

Where the Spotted Towhee Is Detected

BBS routes recording Spotted Towhee, sized by most recent count.

Spotted Towhee Population Trend by State

Spotted Towhee population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona+250%197043
California+32%1970220
Colorado20×197199
Idaho+170%197146
Kansasinsufficient datan/a6
Montana+241%197087
Nebraska13×197138
Nevada+60%197937
New Mexico+366%197055
North Dakota-43%196919
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a1
Oregon-12%1970116
South Dakota+256%196943
Texas-70%19976
Utah+219%197094
Washington+67%197092
Wyoming+138%197071

Spotted Towhee Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Spotted Towhee population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-3%1970128
Great Basin+286%1970179
Northern Rockies-26%1970163
Prairie Potholes+133%196925
Sierra Nevada+94%197039
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+316%1970200
Badlands and Prairies+157%1969107
Shortgrass Prairie+950%197929
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+946%197129
Coastal California+49%1970110
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+84%197110
Sierra Madre Occidental+709%197033
Chihuahuan Desert+164%197218

Spotted Towhee Conservation Status

Least Concern

The IUCN Red List rates this species as Least Concern. Our route-weighted index shows it up about 485% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.