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Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in Nevada

All statesForest birds

Spotted Towhee in Nevada has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+60%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Spotted Towhee Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has risen sharply in Nevada: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Spotted Towhee Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Nevada is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±116.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Nevada is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.40.006.7
20272.40.006.6
20282.40.006.6
20292.40.006.6
20302.30.006.6

Spotted Towhee Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hawthorne4420011997
Fish Creek3520211997
Austin3520182008
Gardnerville1820121992
Carson River1620022001
Humboldt Nf1420192006
Meadow Vally1220251996
Ruby Valley1220011997
Toiyabe Nf1120242002
Willis920251988
Darroughs Hot Spgs920242000
Jarbidge820152006
Oreana820032002
Comins Lake720162005
Charleston Reservoir720242024
Rye Patch619871987
Ranchogrande520241990
Humboldt Nf 2520252023
Chimney Res.520212013
Walker Can420231968
Ruby Valley 2420242004
Nixon420181996
Sheldon Nwr420111993
Gardnerville 2420252013
Dinner Sta319921992

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.