BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Spotted Towhee in California has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+26%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
220Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Spotted Towhee Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Spotted Towhee in California. See the full index history below.

Spotted Towhee Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in California is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 12–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in California is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 12–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025151219
2026151219
2027151219
2028151219
2029161219

Spotted Towhee Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elsinore Mtn14820241970
S Catalina12420221988
Santa Cruz I12219881988
Mt Baldy9020241970
Cuyamaca Pk8920241970
Lake Cachuma6120161972
Jackson5919921972
Bartlett Sps5720181972
Poway5219801973
San Benito Mtn.4720092003
Coulterville4720191997
Jofegan 24620242024
Carmel Val4520241973
Stonyford4520182015
Hough Springs4420071999
Shasta Lake4320241972
Fairfax4320241972
Oak Grove4220241968
Fallsvale4219811970
Rumsey4120081969
Colma4119721968
Morro Bay4120191973
Mt Shasta3920191972
Hay Fork3920172001
Waterman Gap3820241972

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.