BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in California

All statesForest birds

Spotted Towhee in California has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+32%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
220Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Spotted Towhee Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Spotted Towhee in California. See the full index history below.

Spotted Towhee Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 16 (95% range 12–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 16 (95% range 12–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026151219
2027151219
2028161219
2029161219
2030161219

Spotted Towhee Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elsinore Mtn13720251970
Santa Cruz I12219881988
S Catalina10520251988
Mt Baldy9020241970
Cuyamaca Pk8020251970
Lake Cachuma6120161972
Jackson5919921972
Bartlett Sps5720181972
Point Reyes5320251970
Waterman Gap5320251972
Poway5219801973
Carmel Val5220251973
San Benito Mtn.4720092003
Coulterville4720191997
Stonyford4520182015
Hough Springs4420071999
Fairfax4320241972
Fallsvale4219811970
Higgins Corn4220251973
Rumsey4120081969
Colma4119721968
Morro Bay4120191973
Tuolumne Grove4020251972
Mt Shasta3920191972
Hay Fork3920172001

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.