BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Spotted Towhee in Montana has surged: up 233% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+233%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Spotted Towhee Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has surged in Montana: up 233% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Spotted Towhee Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 1.1–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 1.1–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.13.2
20262.11.13.2
20272.21.13.2
20282.21.13.2
20292.21.13.2

Spotted Towhee Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reed Point4020241977
Muddy Creek3420152015
Custer1920222019
Wolf Creek1720222015
Cleveland1620241980
Laurel1320221974
Highwood1020241968
Jordan1020241968
Brusett920241982
Chuffey Spring920242016
Willow Creek 2720241982
Heart Butte620242015
Wolf Point620242015
Raynesford620242016
Redstone520241983
St Xavier520111983
Brandenberg520191968
Hebgen Lake520182017
Bull Mtn.520191995
Custer 2520242024
Glasgow420241968
Polson420241992
Savage420211972
Clyde Park420222019
Wheat Basin420232017

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.