BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Spotted Towhee in New Mexico has surged: up 366% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+366%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Spotted Towhee Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has surged in New Mexico: up 366% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Spotted Towhee Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in New Mexico is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 7.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 2.9–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–9.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in New Mexico is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 7.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 2.9–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.92.79.0
20275.92.79.1
20286.02.89.2
20296.02.99.2
20306.12.99.3

Spotted Towhee Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Emory Pass7120251993
Claunch 25220252001
Claunch4520001977
Gallinas4420251992
Pinon3520241992
Pecos3120171973
Carrizozo3020251968
La Cienega2920221971
Ojo Sarco1920251968
Capulin1819941993
Mcgaffey1820251994
Reserve1420251993
Laborcita 21320252022
Dulce1220252000
Angel Fire 21120252005
Cebolla920231973
Mountainair920241992
Vicks Peak920251992
Fence Lake820251975
Horse Mtn720241968
Capitan Mtn.720171993
Farley620241979
Mt. Taylor 2620242015
Counselor620251992
Nageesi520051990

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.