BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Spotted Towhee in South Dakota has surged: up 250% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+250%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Spotted Towhee Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has surged in South Dakota: up 250% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Spotted Towhee Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in South Dakota is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.68–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.68–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in South Dakota is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.68–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.632.6
20261.60.642.6
20271.70.662.7
20281.70.672.7
20291.70.682.7

Spotted Towhee Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wind Cave Np3020241999
Elk Mountain1820041992
Pleasant Val920241992
Hazelrodt820241993
Lightning Cr620221996
Chamberlain520111968
Rosebud420111967
White River420131994
Cottonwood320161996
Cedar Pass320231967
Maurine319991969
Tripp220132013
Rockyford220211968
Indian220031994
Ft Thompson220111968
French Creek220031995
Roubaix Lk219911969
Reva220241979
Eagle Butte220152001
Isabel219901990
Badlands220231982
Geddes120211999
Winner120112005
S. Pioneer120032003
Railroad Butte120221995

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.