BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Spotted Towhee in Nebraska has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

13×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Spotted Towhee Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has surged in Nebraska: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Spotted Towhee Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Nebraska is projected to rise about 94% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.5–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+94%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Nebraska is projected to rise about 94% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.5–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.91.24.5
20272.91.34.6
20283.01.34.6
20293.01.44.7
20303.11.54.8

Spotted Towhee Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brady5320251995
Pine Ridge1620251999
Crawford920251980
Almeria520121972
Midway520252017
Crookston420252021
Boelus420222018
Oglala Nat. Grass.320251999
Brownlee219951995
Nenzel220252019
Bassett220232019
Hendley220252018
Kearney120111973
Sumner120151975
Holbrook120171979
Bartley120251969
Bartlett119721972
Paxton120122008
Thurston120232023
Sparta120252002
Eagle Creek120242002
Swan Lake120082008
Johnstown119941969
Piester Lake120182018
Agate119991999

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.