BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Spotted Towhee in Oregon has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-17%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Spotted Towhee Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Spotted Towhee in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Spotted Towhee Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Oregon is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.6–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Oregon is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.6–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.13.68.6
20266.13.68.6
20276.13.68.6
20286.13.68.6
20296.13.68.6

Spotted Towhee Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Garfield3920231973
Umpqua3720241968
Adair3620241971
Tualatin3520241968
Green3120241994
Derby2719931968
Elkton2520241972
Selma2520241994
Salem2420241993
Dayton2220241973
Sandy River2220061993
Emigrant Lk2120011972
Mt Hood1820241972
Ruch1720231992
Troy1520241992
Scappoose1520231995
Mcminnville1420241994
Fisher1420101997
Hazel Camp1320221975
Secret Val1320221975
Badger Creek1320241992
Santiam1320241994
Emigrant Lake 21220242002
Canby1220241993
Lorane1220241993

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.