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Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Spotted Towhee in North Dakota has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-43%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Spotted Towhee Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Spotted Towhee in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Spotted Towhee Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in North Dakota is projected to rise about 89% by 2030 — from 0.89 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±667.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+89%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±667.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in North Dakota is projected to rise about 89% by 2030 — from 0.89 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±667.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.003.5
20271.70.003.5
20281.70.003.5
20291.70.003.5
20301.70.003.5

Spotted Towhee Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Roosevelt Pk2120191982
Gorham1320251968
Stanley720251967
Carpio420231967
Zap420191973
Dunn Center320171972
Loraine220162010
Solen220252005
Regan120251970
Ft Yates120041968
Dickinson119961978
Tobacco120191968
Lark119801971
Bowman120181986
Cedar Creek120152003
Golva120251979
Bentley120242009
Glen Ullin120182014
Douglas Crk120211983

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.