BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Spotted Towhee in North Dakota has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-58%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Spotted Towhee Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has fallen sharply in North Dakota: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Spotted Towhee Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in North Dakota is projected to rise about 682% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±675.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+682%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±675.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in North Dakota is projected to rise about 682% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±675.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.003.5
20261.70.003.6
20271.70.003.6
20281.70.003.6
20291.70.003.6

Spotted Towhee Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Roosevelt Pk2120191982
Gorham520181968
Carpio420231967
Stanley420241967
Zap420191973
Dunn Center320171972
Regan220221970
Loraine220162010
Golva220231979
Ft Yates120041968
Dickinson119961978
Tobacco120191968
Lark119801971
Bowman120181986
Cedar Creek120152003
Bentley120242009
Glen Ullin120182014
Douglas Crk120211983
Solen120242005

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.