BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Spotted Towhee in Washington has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+55%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Spotted Towhee Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has risen sharply in Washington: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Spotted Towhee Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Washington is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.9–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.9–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Washington is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.9–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025118.614
2026118.614
2027118.714
2028118.814
2029118.914

Spotted Towhee Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Vashon Is.7920241995
Lake Chelan5920241988
Leavenworth5820241981
Everett5720241975
Snowden5420241971
Warm Beach4920171968
Issaquah4319871969
Rainier4020191993
Port Angeles3820241970
Mendota 33720242005
Northport3320241996
Kendall3120241981
Chewelah3020211977
South Elma2920241975
Warm Beach 22920242018
Keller2620071968
Deception2520181992
Ardenvoir2419871968
Twisp2120241969
Laurier2120221996
Omak Creek2020241996
Carnation2020241988
Mukilteo1920241993
Newhalem1820241968
Mazama1820221993

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.