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Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Spotted Towhee in Washington has risen sharply: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+67%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Spotted Towhee Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has risen sharply in Washington: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Spotted Towhee Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Washington is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.1–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.1–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Washington is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.1–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026118.814
2027128.814
2028128.914
2029129.014
2030129.115

Spotted Towhee Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rainier7720251993
Snowden6020251971
Leavenworth5820241981
Vashon Is.5820251995
Lake Chelan5720251988
Port Angeles5320251970
Everett5220251975
Warm Beach4920171968
Issaquah4319871969
Kendall3820251981
Chewelah3020211977
South Elma2920241975
Warm Beach 22920242018
Mendota 32820252005
Keller2620071968
Laurier2620251996
Northport2520251996
Deception2520181992
Ardenvoir2419871968
Mukilteo2220251993
Carnation2220251988
Twisp2120241969
Omak Creek2020241996
Cloverland1920251993
Mazama1820221993

Spotted Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.