BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Spotted Towhee In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

Spotted Towhee in Coastal California has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+49%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Spotted Towhee in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Spotted Towhee In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 21 (95% range 15–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 21 (95% range 15–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201526
2027201526
2028211526
2029211526
2030211526

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA1372025
Santa Cruz ICALIFORNIA1221988
S CatalinaCALIFORNIA1052025
Mt BaldyCALIFORNIA902024
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA802025
Lake CachumaCALIFORNIA612016
JacksonCALIFORNIA591992
Bartlett SpsCALIFORNIA572018
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA532025
Waterman GapCALIFORNIA532025
PowayCALIFORNIA521980
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA522025
San Benito Mtn.CALIFORNIA472009
StonyfordCALIFORNIA452018
Hough SpringsCALIFORNIA442007
FairfaxCALIFORNIA432024
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA421981
RumseyCALIFORNIA412008
ColmaCALIFORNIA411972
Morro BayCALIFORNIA412019
Jofegan 2CALIFORNIA362025
Lake BerryessaCALIFORNIA342025
MoragaCALIFORNIA322025
GreenfieldCALIFORNIA322025
SisquocCALIFORNIA312014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.