BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Towhee In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Spotted Towhee in Coastal California has increased: up 38% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+38%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Spotted Towhee in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Spotted Towhee In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 15–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 15–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201426
2026201426
2027201526
2028201526
2029201526

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA1482024
S CatalinaCALIFORNIA1242022
Santa Cruz ICALIFORNIA1221988
Mt BaldyCALIFORNIA902024
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA892024
Lake CachumaCALIFORNIA612016
JacksonCALIFORNIA591992
Bartlett SpsCALIFORNIA572018
PowayCALIFORNIA521980
San Benito Mtn.CALIFORNIA472009
Jofegan 2CALIFORNIA462024
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA452024
StonyfordCALIFORNIA452018
Hough SpringsCALIFORNIA442007
FairfaxCALIFORNIA432024
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA422024
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA421981
RumseyCALIFORNIA412008
ColmaCALIFORNIA411972
Morro BayCALIFORNIA412019
Waterman GapCALIFORNIA382024
SisquocCALIFORNIA312014
AlamarCALIFORNIA312017
FolsomCALIFORNIA302024
Mt LagunaCALIFORNIA301987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.