BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Towhee In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Spotted Towhee in Northern Rockies has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-36%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Spotted Towhee in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Spotted Towhee In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.03.6
20262.31.13.6
20272.31.13.6
20282.31.13.6
20292.31.13.6

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Muddy CreekMONTANA342015
NorthportWASHINGTON332024
ChewelahWASHINGTON302021
KellerWASHINGTON262007
LaurierWASHINGTON212022
Omak CreekWASHINGTON202024
CloverlandWASHINGTON182024
FeathervilleIDAHO172024
Wolf CreekMONTANA172022
TroyOREGON152024
LaurelMONTANA132022
Crawford MtsUTAH132015
ClarkWYOMING132024
Browns ParkCOLORADO112024
CoolinIDAHO112024
Hells CanyonOREGON112022
Deer ParkWASHINGTON112015
Salmon RiverIDAHO102021
Twin LakesWASHINGTON102024
LogdellOREGON82024
CentervilleIDAHO72019
Willow Creek 2MONTANA72024
NewbridgeOREGON72024
CrowheartWYOMING72021
NaplesIDAHO62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.