BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Spotted Towhee In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Spotted Towhee in Northern Rockies has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-26%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
163Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Spotted Towhee in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Spotted Towhee In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.1–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.1–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.41.13.6
20272.41.13.6
20282.41.13.6
20292.41.13.7
20302.41.13.7

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WallowaOREGON362025
Muddy CreekMONTANA342015
ChewelahWASHINGTON302021
KellerWASHINGTON262007
LaurierWASHINGTON262025
NorthportWASHINGTON252025
CentervilleIDAHO222025
Omak CreekWASHINGTON202024
FeathervilleIDAHO192025
CloverlandWASHINGTON192025
Hells CanyonOREGON162025
MonumentOREGON162025
Spring LakeWASHINGTON162025
Salmon RiverIDAHO132025
TroyOREGON132025
NewbridgeOREGON132025
Crawford MtsUTAH132015
Twin LakesWASHINGTON122025
Browns ParkCOLORADO112025
CusickWASHINGTON112025
Deer ParkWASHINGTON112015
CoolinIDAHO102025
Willow Creek 2MONTANA102025
LogdellOREGON102025
MadrasOREGON102025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.